Monday, August 12, 2013
Rising Prices and Rising Rates - And the Recovery Continues
If there's one thing about cycles - what goes down eventually comes up. We are enthused to be involved with a number of residential projects as a capital partner in Southern California during this "Conservative Renaissance" of real estate. The great response from the market to these single family offerings clearly affirms our sentiments that a recovery is in full swing. This in addition to our commercial holdings, clearly supports the conclusion that the recovery is across the real estate product types. But as always, smart investors practice cautious optimism even during a positive period. The road ahead looks promising for continued growth in real estate, but a few trends are worth keeping our eye on that could impact the cycle down the road.
We all recall too well the dark days of the housing crisis characterized by plunging property values and growing shadow inventories before disparate forces in real estate actually converged to create opportunities investors are currently enjoying today. First, strong government initiatives in the form of legislation, regulatory reform, and programs benefitting distressed homeowners mitigated the flow of foreclosed properties ending on the auction block or as REO. Second, monetary policies and other market conditions maintained a low ceiling for interest rates, allowing investors and consumers (that could meet strict underwriting guidelines) to borrow at cheap rates. Third, the economy following its own cycle of growth finally showed sustained month-after-month improvement, with the much welcomed inverse relationship of falling unemployment and rising GDP. The result has created a market of increased demand caused by the lack of distressed properties available at a discount, affordable mortgage payments due to low interest rates, and more consumer confidence that they will have an employment base to support a mortgage.
Vista Urbana, an affordable home project in the Ventura area is one of our success stories. Peak served as the capital source for the endeavor. Construction commenced in October 2011. The affordable housing development consists of 156 condominium units, recently completing phase I and II of construction with all units reserved or sold. Units in phase III, currently in the final phases of construction, have all been pre-sold. Oak Terrace, a mixed townhouse / single-family residence project in Thousand Oaks catering to a more upscale audience is another Peak capital project that boasts 84 units upon completion. With almost 50% of units built and occupied, the remaining units have also been pre-sold. In both of these ventures, favorable market conditions have contributed to their success.
Rising interest rates is the one factor posing a potential threat to the current momentum. So far, the market has been able to operate smoothly in light of tight inventories. The upward pressure this is applying to home values is starting to entice more homeowners to sell, and some analysts anticipate home values to appreciate more than six percent in 2013. However, rates have incrementally increased over 100 basis points in a year, and some fear the combination of higher rates with higher valued homes could price many consumers out of the market. Moreover, investors could begin looking for better returns in other investment vehicles.
As affordability decreases, urgency increases. Rising home values, along with rising rates,can continue the momentum by spurring ambivalent buyers that can afford to participate into the market while they perceive they can still afford to buy. That, coupled with increased inventory generated by new sellers benefitting from rising equity in their homes, should prove to modulate the increased cost of homeownership in line with continuing improvements in the economy. In light of appreciating home values and interest rates, we’re confident we are still at the beginning of a great cycle for real estate, and are anticipating great returns from additional residential projects we are involved in as financing partners that should complete construction in the next twelve months. Investors and consumers alike can both benefit from today’s market. Appreciating values and rates reflect the fortitude of a market and economy that can support it.